Abstract
This study analyses the effect of political stability and macroeconomic uncertainty on aggregate investment behaviour in Pakistan over the period 1960–2015. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) methodology is applied to explore both the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run behaviour of investment. The macroeconomic uncertainty variable is derived from real exchange rate and is computed by the best-fitted GARCH model. The results reveal robust effects of political stability and macroeconomic uncertainty on overall investment activity in Pakistan. The government nationalisation policy, GDP growth, user cost of capital, credit availability and degree of openness are found to be the other key determining factors for investment both in long- and short-run. However, the favourable impact of physical infrastructure on investment holds in long-run only, while its effect is adverse though insignificantly in short-run. The findings support the neoclassical flexible accelerator principle and are consistent with economic theory. The volume of available funds is the binding constraint for investment and the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis is validated in the short-run.
Keyword(s)
A PHP Error was encountered
Severity: Notice
Message: Undefined variable: pub_keywords
Filename: front/publication.php
Line Number: 77
Backtrace:
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/application/views/front/publication.php
Line: 77
Function: _error_handler
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/application/controllers/Front.php
Line: 221
Function: view
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/index.php
Line: 315
Function: require_once
A PHP Error was encountered
Severity: Warning
Message: Invalid argument supplied for foreach()
Filename: front/publication.php
Line Number: 77
Backtrace:
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/application/views/front/publication.php
Line: 77
Function: _error_handler
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/application/controllers/Front.php
Line: 221
Function: view
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/index.php
Line: 315
Function: require_once
A PHP Error was encountered
Severity: Notice
Message: Undefined variable: pub_info
Filename: front/publication.php
Line Number: 84
Backtrace:
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/application/views/front/publication.php
Line: 84
Function: _error_handler
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/application/controllers/Front.php
Line: 221
Function: view
File: /home/prdbpk/public_html/index.php
Line: 315
Function: require_once