Abstract
This paper illustrates Pakistan’s responses to the demands of the United States against the Afghan Taliban doesn’t depend on its security calculation against India as neo-realism predicts, but on other factors like military capability, the presence of threat from India and lack of strategic incentives. Pakistan’s responses can precisely be explained by neo-classical realism that stresses upon the roles of elites’ perception, military capability and domestic politics. One of the key reasons for the lack of cooperation between the US and Pakistan on the issue of the Afghan Taliban is the capability of the Pakistani army. If Pakistan’s army has to do a military operation against the Afghan Taliban to remove their sanctuaries in FATA and Balochistan under the doctrine of counter-insurgency, it has to deploy it forces in the Taliban’s influenced Pashtun’s belt of Pakistan. While keeping the threat from India in perspective, it is not numerically possible for Pakistan’s army to deploy its forces in the entire Pashtun’s belt; therefore, it has to sequence its operation first against the Pakistani than Afghan Taliban. Secondly, for counter-insurgency operation it has to change its force structure and weapons system from conventional army to counter-insurgency one. It is not possible as long as the Indian threat is there; therefore, Pakistan has to develop a new counter-insurgency army. Thirdly, the average age of a successful counter-insurgency campaign is 14 years, whereas, the track record of south Asian forces is not that good against insurgency. These three operational constraints on Pakistan’s army capability played an important role in delaying the military operation in North Waziristan.
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