Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the China-Pakistan Regional Trade Agreement on Pakistan’s exports. We applied the gravity trade model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator for export data for a period of 16 years from 2003 to 2018. For the sake of a comprehensive analysis, ten products at the HS-4 level are studied. The estimates show expected signsfor all traditional variables of the gravity equation, including GDP, bilateral distance, colonial relationship, language commonality and landlocked importing countries. The results show a consistent and significant positive impact of the RTA on Pakistan exports.